Kathmandu: Prior to beginning of the much awaited Maoist-Government talks on Sunday, three events took place, deliberately or otherwise, which analysts opine could have an everlasting impact in the existing Nepalese politics.

Events usually take place. Nothing unusual about that. However, some events assume greater importance and significance for its timing and the style of the event thus happened.

To come to the point, the events that appear to shape the future events in this “conspiratorial” country are namely; first the sudden and non-publicised visit of Nepal’s number one political player and one of the top-hats of the RPP, Surya Bahadur Thapa to New Delhi last week.

Making pilgrimages to New Delhi by Nepali politicians is not altogether a new phenomenon. Thanks that our leaders of all sorts have maintained this tradition, which appear to continue ad infinitum should the country’s politics continue to be squeezed by Nepal’s vibrant politicians much the same way as they have been doing with it at the moment.

Thapa’s sneaking into the Indian capital last week assumes greater importance and significance because he did it so immediately after meeting the King at the Palace last Tuesday. Whether he was invited for a Royal audience or he sought this meeting with the monarch is yet to be clarified. However, what is for sure is that Thapa met the King last Tuesday and straight headed for Delhi.

Yet another factor makes Thapa’s Delhi trip important because Katmandu’s rumor mill strongly believes that Thapa of the RPP continues to be “one of the best friends” of the Indian establishment, a relation that both New Delhi and Thapa have maintained all along beginning the Panchayat days which happily continue till today.

What remains yet to be clarified is whether Thapa made a sudden dash to Delhi on his own or was told by the monarch to do so? If Thapa went to Delhi on his own then what he discussed with his friends in Delhi has not yet been made clear by Mr. Thapa who upon his return simply told the press men that he had gone there to check up his “health”. But then the Nepali press were not briefed about Thapa’s deteriorating health that he had to rush to Delhi. If it were a minor health problem, then Nepali hospitals too would have come to his support. But he didn’t approach but felt comfortable in flying to Delhi. Here lies the political significance of Thapas’s Delhi trip.

Likewise, if Thapa acted as an emissary to the King and made his landing in Delhi then the national population would be pleased to know the details of his talks with the Indian leaders. But he would not divulge. He is one who is a known shrewd politician.

All put together, Thapas’s trip to Delhi has taken place at a time when the three political forces, e.g the King, the Maoists and the parliamentary parties, are hell bent on minimizing the role of the other two in order to have a greater role in the country’s future politics.

The second event that also is no less important is the visit of the Indian COAS, Mr. Viz. This visit has also taken place around the time of the beginning of the Government-Maoists talks.

The significance lies in the fact that India declared the Maoists as terrorists much ahead of Nepal’s declaration. COAS Viz indirectly stated that his side was ready to supply arms and ammunitions to contain the threat of the terrorists. Analysts opine that COAS Viz’s hint was towards the Maoists.

Analyzing COAS Viz’s statement two things come to the fore: that India would continue to supply arms to Nepal so that the latter could manage to contain the threats of the Maoists should the talks fail; and that the Maoists continue to be looked upon as terrorists by India even if Nepal lifted the tag of the terrorists. This also means that India considers Nepali Maoists as a threat to their own security given the supposed links with Nepali rebels with the Indian Maoists scattered in different parts of India.

Surprising though it may appear, high placed sources in Kathmandu say that Nepali Maoists took their shelter in India all along these seven years. But if India considers the Nepali rebels a threat to its own security then why she provided shelters to the rebels? Very difficult to understand indeed.

All put together, India will watch closely the proceedings of the talks and would feel more “comfortable” politically if the ” self-marginalised” political parties join the talks. India is on record to have expressed its wish that the King and the government in Kathmandu must not sideline the rest of the political actors at time of the talks. Here lies the significance.

The third event that must have come as a bolt from the blue to the Maoists who have become aboveground recently was the signing of a sort of agreement in between Nepal and the United States regarding Nepal’s receiving the American support to contain the threat of terrorism. The amount is a big one and the timing is simply symbolic.

The US grant assistance has come at a time when the government and the Maoists have just begun their talks. The volume of the assistance, the timing of the assistance and the very intent of the agreement thus signed a day prior to the talks speak so many things at a time. Perhaps the message is clear to the Maoists.

Analysts opine that the US-Nepal agreement signed last week is a kind of subtle pressure on the Maoists rebels to arrive at a positive “conclusion” during the talks or else face the music.

The US intention might not be that as stated above but then the timing itself of the agreement is somewhat disturbing for the Maoists.

Or it could be that the dates for putting signatures on the said agreement were decided in advance which coincided with the resumption of the talks.

Be that as it may, these three separate events clearly will have its impact on Nepali politics. How it will have its impact will have to be carefully watched.