Kathmandu: As the political scene shifted to Pokhara with the government media highlighting the party event full scale, speculation regarding victor Girija Prasad Koirala’s effort to retain a united party in action is already underway. This speculation is already fueled by a report circulated here of an American strategic studies’ organization that considers the government party split imminent to the advantage of the “communists” and the “Maoists”.

The American Intelligence Institute “STRATFOR” which comes with impeccable international credentials in its January 4, 2001 report, moreover, not only sees the Communists and Maoists’ coming to power in Nepal, it also forecasts a change in the Nepali political system and insists that the country’s strategic location might well invite serious strategic changes of import from Central Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean to the Southeast.

Perceiving that the current government malaise arises out of the disputes within the congress, the Austin based ‘STRATFOR’ gives a dim picture of the state of the Nepali economy and the fragility of the social system here which is tantamount to the advantages of the radical Left, namely the Maoists’ which, it insists, controls a large chunk of the country’s landmass.

STRATFOR in its report quotes Nepali media reports in citing the explosive events of the past month in the country. It is on these grounds also that the report builds a case for imminent political change.

Curiously, the American intelligence organization which is also said to reflect American strategic thinking has put the Nepali communist movement in proximity with the Chinese in the North on which basis it states that the developments forecast would be to the advantage of the Chinese and the disadvantage of the Indians as well as American interests in the Indian Ocean. (See strip news in this page for the full text of the STRATFOR).