Kathmandu: The UML move to allow government reprieve in parliament and discuss its programs prior to the budget is to be watched. It has by no means aborted its demand for resignation from the Prime Minister. Nor is it likely that the Prime Minister will resign after the discussions conclude. The test therefore has only been postponed.

The leadership situation in the Nepali Congress itself will be ruse enough to allow Mr. Koirala to continue in office. Girija babu has ensured that the ranks in his opposition within the party have been so depleted as to be re-elected leader of the largest party in parliament which constitutionally must have government and so any attempt at proving the majority in the house is likely to favor Koirala and none else.

This is, of course, in the event that Koirala’s opponents within his own party do not chose to vote elsewhere. What happens if and when the number defies the whip and votes against party ruling is likely to be a matter that will put the constitution to test once more. Regardless of the UML stance to oust Koirala whichever way, this matter will itself invite yet another crisis.

And so the budget session is unlikely to be the smooth proceeding appealed for by Nepali constitutionalists and parliamentarians. Unless an agreement, covert or overt, is arrived at between the Prime Minister and the UML, the standpoints that have been publicly taken by both parliamentary powers makes it easy to predict a crisis.

Add to this the subtle maneuvers underway targeting the Palace and one finds meaning even deeper than that publicly professed in the actions and the speeches of the current political establishments. The example of a deputy prime minister and home minister seeing publicly Nirmal Nivas, King Gyanendra’s private residence, as the ultimate source for the Maoists (see Himalaya Times daily dated June 19, 2001) is merely one of the two extremes posited in the current game plan. The other lies in the public declaration by the Maoists that their hit list will now only include the supporters of the NC-Girija and King Gyanendra is the other extreme. The Palace thus appears the target of a pincer between the government and the radical Left. Something not without meaning surely.

The crisis being invited by the political organizations thus appears to be openly targeting a Royal Palace that is only now recuperating from the calamitous events of last month and is gradually assuming its sombre public responsibilities. Clearly, public eyes are very much scrutinizing this very role of the country’s apex, which will be put to very severe test in the widely expected event of a crisis in parliament.