International Crisis Group—a leading Brussels-based think tank—has warned that Nepal risks political collapse and increased human suffering unless the royal government calls off municipal elections and cooperates in a broad-based peace process.

The latest report from the ICG entitled “Nepal: Electing Chaos,” made public on Tuesday, said that the royal government is inviting confrontation by forcing through, amidst a new crackdown, municipal elections on 8 February which will not be free, fair or credible. Filling local posts with what it called palace placemen will neither restart the national democratic process, nor bring peace closer, the report said.

“This is the most recent in a series of moves which have inflamed tensions and increased polarisation between the palace and other political forces. The King claims local elections will reinvigorate democracy, but they would do the opposite. All mainstream parties, which have considerable street support, are boycotting; many posts have no candidates nominated to contest them. The palace has responded to protests with an assault on civil liberties reminiscent of its opposition to the 1990 democracy movement,” the report said.

“The palace’s agenda is clear: to sideline democratic parties and consolidate monarchical rule”, said Rhoderick Chalmers, ICG’s South Asia deputy project director. “Nepal needs a peace process, not a sham election which will do nothing to restore democracy or resolve the conflict”.

The palace has dismissed opportunities for peace, refusing to reciprocate the four-month Maoist ceasefire or explore the November 2005 agreement between the Maoists and the mainstream parties, which holds open a possible compromise with the monarchy. The Maoists ended their ceasefire and launched a renewed offensive in January, proving not only that they are still a force to be reckoned with, but that they are still the only political player with a coherent strategy, the International Crisis Group said.

While there is still dispute over how to move toward peace, the conflict remains soluble. The political parties must settle internal differences and develop a clear agenda, and the Maoists must offer a concrete plan for disarmament and commit to a new ceasefire. The international community should show the King he does not have a blank cheque to turn the political clock back a generation…., the latest report said.

“The outside world must help convince King Gyanendra to reverse course and create an environment for a genuine peace process or Nepal’s civil war will become much worse, with the monarchy an increasingly likely casualty”, said Robert Templer, ICG’s Asia program director.