By Jan Sharma

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s unprecedented landslide victory is of little consequence to Nepal facing one of the most serious threats to her national security.

What looks like Koizumi’s ballot coup d’etate is nevertheless reassuring of the continuity of Japan’s Nepal policy. Reversal of the policy is unlikely no matter which party is voted to power.

Yet, there seems to be very little hope of further strengthening of the bilateral relations even as both Kathmandu and Tokyo prepare to celebrate next year the 50th anniversary of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations.

Despite the attributes of close cultural affinities, no Japanese emperor has ever visited Nepal. Yoshiro Mori is the first and last Japanese prime minister to have ever visited Nepal while still in office.

And the last state visit to Japan by a Nepali monarch was way back in 1978. This does not mean that exchange of visits have not taken place between the two countries since then.

Crown Prince Paras visited Japan this year, and the visit went down extremely well – as had Crown Prince Dipendra’s memorable visit in April-May 2001 – when official statements spoke eloquently of the close affinities between the two Asian monarchies.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (File Photo)

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (File Photo)
However, Crown Prince Paras never got to meet Prime Minister Koizumi, known for his flamboyant style and a penchant for heavy metal music. In sharp contrast, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun was at hand to accord a warm welcome to the Crown Prince.

Last week’s election in Japan had nothing to do with Nepal. Yet, the state of bilateral relations between the two monarchies is curious, especially at a time when Japan has been pursuing a pro-active foreign policy and an assertive global role.

That this should be the state of Nepal-Japan bilateral ties is even more pathetic when Nepal faces an unprecedented threat to her very sovereign independent existence.

It is true that foreign policy was not a major issue, but the 12-day long election campaign did see a host of issues ranging from Japan’s neighborhood policy to reforms in the Constitution.

Of course, the postal service reforms dominated the debate preceding the vote. The postal reforms, according to New York Times, are not scheduled until the year 2017, more than a decade after Koizumi leaves office.

Opinion polls by The Asahi Shimbun found that nearly 80 percent of respondents expected widespread changes in the political and economic spheres. These reforms are easier said than done, no matter the size of Koizumi’s victory.

Liberal Democratic Party – which has ruled Japan almost uninterrupted in the post-War period – and its coalition partners have two thirds majority in the Lower House.

This has turned Japan effectively into a one-party system. Hope that the Japanese will have a two-party system was ignited when the opposition Democratic Party of Japan made significant gains in the Upper House elections in July 2004.

Koizumi landslide victory has smashed that myth.

According to The Asahi Simbun, the Japanese voters are concerned about their country’s future “with its rapidly aging population and dwindling birthrate. In fact, the total population will soon begin to decline.”

There have also been concerns about debts held by the central and local governments amounting to a whopping ¥770 trillion. Koizumi says he is committed to change.

Koizumi has been seeking a more active military to protect the nation and take part in peaceful missions overseas by removing restrictions imposed by its pacifist Constitution to allow Tokyo a more active international profile.

Improving Japan’s relations with China and South Korea, as well as the future of Japanese troops in peace missions in Iraq will top his agenda but is unlikely to shift the focus on South Asia.

When he was sworn in office for the first time in April 2001, Prime Minister Koizumi was perceived more as a passing fad than a leader who could make a lasting imprint on Japan. He has proved his political skills and piloted LDP to a new height.

But it will be doubtful if the future will see any substantial strengthening of the bilateral relations between Nepal and Japan even if there is no issue that divides or separates them.