Guns or reconciliation?

September 29, 2004
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Kathmandu: The Sher Bahadur Deuba led four party partnered government is not a united lot.

This is what the political analysts conclude.

Deuba’s ministers give an impression that it is they who provide direction to the government’s impending moves and in the process confuse the people and their own leaders seated in their respective parties.

Worth noting is the fact that the ministers representing the UML party in government do clearly differ with what their own leaders in the party lecture.

For instance, Madhav Kumar, the undisputed leader of the party, has repeatedly been demanding the announcement of a unilateral ceasefire from the government, his own party minister, Bachaspati Devkota, the other day brushed aside his own party’s boss demand by saying that any such declaration would do more harm that good. In saying so, Mr. Devkota hinted his party boss that his dictates would not be entertained on matters that are to be decided and finalized by the sitting government. It further implies that Mr. Devkota wants to hint Madhav Nepal not to poke his nose in the exclusive affairs of the government.

Why Mr. Nepal is insisting on the announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by the government is a matter to be seriously taken care of.

Is he expecting that if the government does so, the Maoists will follow suit? If he is so hopeful then it should not be a matter of annoyance to anyone including minister Devkota. Or is it that he is being seduced by the Maoists to press the government in this regard? What if Mr. Nepal makes the same fervent appeal to the Maoists for a declaration of ceasefire much ahead of the government’s announcement? If he can press the government then why he appears reluctant in doing the same to his Maoists colleagues?

Is it that he wants to show the rebels that he is sympathetic towards their issue? This is not in effect.

That he is not that sympathetic to the Maoists got reflected the other day when Madhav Nepal in a threat loaded voice indicated Prachanda to come to his senses and understand the existing realities.

“Do away with the illusions, if any, and shun arrogance whatever you might have”, is what Mr. Nepal suggested comrade Prachanda. In the same vein, comrade Nepal also made it clear to the leaders of the insurgency that if the conflict continued for long then in that eventuality it would be the Maoists insurgency that would accrue tremendous loss.

At yet another level, Madhav Nepal too clearly hinted that his party would wish the UN presence at the talks but would not recommend the international body assuming any advanced role. Madhav’s stance now coincides with those of Koirala’s regarding the possible role of the UN in the peace talks.

The same is with Deuba. His own words and speeches differ.

He says the media men that the talks will commence in a manner that even the media men would not get an inkling of the talks.

That he and some of his ministers were making false comments regarding the “secret ongoing talks” with the Maoists came into the open when comrade Prachanda sent his “thrilling” questions in the name of Deuba suggesting that the Maoists were yet to decide whether or not to go for talks with this establishment.

Analysts opine that Deuba upon his return from New Delhi is a different political stuff. A Deuba who used to talk the language of reconciliation in the not so distant past now is a different political personality who believes in the strength of the guns though he understands well that it is a battle that guns can’t settle.

Now it is up to Deuba to decide on how to proceed ahead. He is left with only two major options: either to rely on the strength of the guns or reconcile with the Maoists by replying to Prachanda’s hair raising questions.

Deuba would do well, opine analysts, if he adheres to the mode of reconciliation.