Kathmandu: Madhav Nepal has played his political cards well and in the process gave an impression to all and sundry that he was the one who really were concerned for the nation’s fledgling democratic system.
The UML strongman had altogether four cards under his sleeve.
The first card he used to give an impression to Koirala and his partners in the coalition against regression that included the UML as well that he and his party will fight unto death until the regression got corrected and that too in full. The UML was with the coalition against regression thus.
The second card he used against the coalition against regression. This he did when he felt cheated by Koirala, the commander of the agitation. He left the agitation abruptly devising certain political mechanisms wherein he even distorted the very definition of regression. But the fact is that if he were not deceived by Koirala, perhaps he would have continued with the agitation even till todate.
The third card he used to lure Sher Bahadur Deuba and indicated the latter that he was far better than his former commander. To recall, the UML from the very beginning have had hinted Deuba that should such a moment come in the way that offered the UML to elevate its ranks in the government he would not hesitate to opt for that option.
It was his third political card that apparently partially saved Madhav’s political face in the face of having been already humiliated by Koirala. An innocent Deuba fell in Madhav’s trap.
The UML devised several schemes to seduce Deuba so that the latter could induct his party to the cabinet.
What was full regression for his coalition partners left in the cold amounted to “partial correction” of the regression for Madhav Nepal and his party. In changing the direction of the act of regression, Madhav’s card served well in sending mild signals to the Palace which apparently concluded that it is Madhav who has come to the rescue of the palace. Madhav’s intention was to send signals to the palace not to take him and his party as a party against the palace. The Palace had reasons to console itself and it did apparently.
The third card is perhaps very important for Madhav and his party for this card will at some time later will facilitate the fourth card to come to its effective use.
The fourth card Madhav will presumably use in damaging the popularity of the incumbent prime minister and he will presumably do it at time of the government’s negotiations with the Maoists, if at all it takes place. In effect this card is kept exclusively to be used against government and concurrently pleasing the insurgents.
Analysts maintain that Madhav Nepal is still having his contacts with Prachanda and appears ideologically closer to the rebels. To recall, some of the points in the UML’s nine point agenda does favor the Maoists demands in an indirect manner.
The UML idea is that the government might forward its limitations at times of the talks with the Maoists and it would be this time around that the UML members in the cabinet will quit the government en masse which will not only embarrass the government but would concurrently send signals to the Maoists camp that it is only the UML which is close to the Maoists concerns.
If in case the UML’s en masse exit from the cabinet brings about a collapse of the Deuba cabinet, then the UML might claim the natural heir to the throne in Singh Durbar.
Thus goes the UML strategy. However, politics might not proceed as per Madhav’s way. To these UML possible overtures to succeed, he will have to confront his “antidotes”, Bam Dev and K.P.Woli-the two declared equally competent and aggressive rivals of Madhav Nepal who has succeeded in sending all of his “yes-men” in Deuba’s cabinet much to the chagrin of the two disgruntled stalwarts.
Let’s wait and see how the UML’s chief plays his cards under his sleeves and how his detractors foil his inner designs if any.