King Gyanendra’s call for holding the polls within the next one year takes the conflict-torn country on a new course. Although the prevailing security situation does not appear favorable to hold the polls, the decision, if implemented, can restore the derailed democratic process to the right track. With this speech King Gyanendra seems to have thrown the ball to the court of political parties. The parties, which till now have been clamoring for the restoration of the parliament, now realize that polls could be the only generally acceptable way out of the current imbroglio. However, their concern is to ensure that the elections are held in free and fair manner. Therefore, all the political forces now need to agree on the mechanism to ensure that they are held in proper environment
By SANJAYA DHAKAL
King Gyanendra addressing in Pokhara : Poll is the goal
In a marked departure from earlier practices of criticizing the political parties King Gyanendra, while delivering his speech in Pokhara on March 28, called for their cooperation to hold the elections.
“We call on all concerned to create an environment wherein the governance of the country can be handed over to elected representatives by initiating elections to the House of Representatives within the year 2061. The elections must be free and fair. Every adult citizen must strongly feel the franchise can be exercised to elect the representatives of one’s own free will. We are hopeful that necessary cooperation will be forthcoming from all those who have faith in multi-party democracy, including political parties.” – King Gyanendra, Pokhara, March 28, 2004, The Himalayan Times daily.
The Pokhara speech has clearly paved the way for the polls. By the speech, the King has indicated that he realizes that the country cannot linger on in status quo. But, he has also indicated that restoration of the parliament is not an option. In the evolving scenario, the political parties need to grab the opportunity to put the country back to the track of democracy.
The political parties, too, are not in a position to outright reject the proposition. For the last one and a half years, the political parties have engaged in agitation demanding an end to regression. Their demand for the restoration of the parliament, too, has come under the shadow since the official tenure of the previous (dissolved) House of Representatives comes to an end later this month.
“Elections appear as the only viable option before them,” said a political analyst. “But naturally, they would wish to ensure that elections are held in free and fair manner.”
In his speech, King Gyanendra has also underlined the necessity of holding polls in free and fair manner; and in an atmosphere where there is no fear. How to ensure such atmosphere is the major issue at hand. And until and unless the King and political parties bury their differences, such atmosphere cannot be imagined.
Ball In Parties’ Court
The country is not in an ordinary situation and nobody should expect ordinary atmosphere for polls. “It would be insane for the parties to expect that somehow Maoists, who are fighting for their own cause, would have a mercy on them and decide to allow them to contest the polls without hindrance. Of course, their demand for minimum poll-friendly environment is justified. But to create that environment, the parties and the King should first try to bridge the gap between them,” said an analyst. “If an understanding is reached with the Maoists, so much the better. But the parties should shed off thoughts that polls should be held only after resolving Maoist problem. If the problem prolongs, how long should the country wait before it has elected and legitimate government at the helms of affairs? Even if the parliament had not been dissolved in May 2002, its tenure would have come to an end by now and it would have been time to elect new representatives.”
Political leaders have given mixed response to King Gyanendra’s speech in Pokhara. Madhav Kumar Nepal, general secretary of the Unified Marxist Leninist (UML), has said that it is a routine speech filled with rhetorics. “There is nothing new in the speech. Only new words have been used to express the same old things. There are promises only,” said Nepal. “A promise has been made to hold the polls in 2061 but it does not look likely.”
Nepal also complained that when the government is unable to provide security even to district headquarters, how they can hold elections across the country. His point is valid except that elections have to be held. Polls have been held in conflict torn places like Kashmir. There are reports of pre-poll violence in Sri Lanka currently. Luckily in the past Nepal had to face no such situation and elections were held in peaceful environment. But times have changed and the political parties will also need to change their strategies as well. “Rather than debating on the necessity of elections, they would do well by working to create necessary environment in cooperation with all concerned,” said the analyst.
Most of the leaders of the five agitating parties echo Nepal in their response to royal speech. Lokendra Bahadur Chand, former prime minister and leader of Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), has welcomed King’s speech saying, “The King has outlined his commitment to (hand over) to the elected representatives. It is now up to the political parties to take initiatives from their end.”
Many political pundits feel that the issue of holding elections could be sorted out if the King forms an all party government as per the recommendation of major mainstream parties. “That way the grievances of the parties will also be settled; and the King’s promise can also be kept,” said the analyst.
Furthermore, elections at this juncture could bring all the constitutional forces together on a single plank – a vital and necessary element at a time when the country is dealing with the insurgency.
Stepped Up Violence
UML Leaders : Time to act
The two major assaults by the Maoist rebels within a span of last one month resulting in the deaths of over 200 people has delivered a setback to the government’s promise to hold general elections to resolve the political imbroglio enveloping this impoverished Himalayan Kingdom.
Just as the Home Minister Kamal Thapa was saying that the government had already immersed itself in the ground works in security, administrative and political fronts to prepare for the polls – sometime later this year – the rebels launched their attack throwing cold water over the plans to hold polls to end the complicated political impasse that has been dogging this country ever since the elected parliament was dissolved nearly two years ago in May 2002 by then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba.
Subsequently, in October 2002, Deuba was dismissed by King Gyanendra, ending the days of elected government sparking controversy between monarchy and the political forces. Moreover, when Deuba let the tenure of the local elected bodies expire in July 2002 as he was unable to hold elections in view of Maoist threat, even the village level bodies were left without elected heads – leaving the countryside virtually in a political vacuum.
So, when the rebels launched ferocious attack in Bhojpur bazaar – the headquarters of eastern hilly district of Bhojpur – on March 2 and another bloody attack in Beni bazaar – the headquarters of western hilly district of Myagdi on March 20, they dealt an upset to government plans. In Bhojpur incident, 32 security personnel and around equal number of rebels were killed while 50 security personnel and around 20 civilians were killed in Beni attack. In Beni the security forces claimed to have recovered around 100 dead bodies of rebels from the site.
Political agitation : No end in sight
Bhojpur and Beni attacks came at a time when the government had been claiming that the rebels had been sufficiently defeated to limit their activities to ‘laying on ambushes and stray explosions’. Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa himself had said that the rebels no more could launch organized attacks like the ones witnessed in Bhojpur and Beni. He had hinted that general elections would be held around November this year.
Even after the Beni attack, Home Minister Kamal Thapa, on his part, said that although it was aimed at disrupting the poll preparations, the government would continue to move ahead with its commitment to hold elections. “Their (Maoist) actions are always targeted against democracy and constitutional process. But the government is steadfast in its commitment to hold the polls as soon as possible,” said Minister Thapa.
But there are few who buy his argument. Most of the political parties have repeatedly stated that no elections can be held in prevailing situation of insecurity.
“We extremely want elections but there has to be conducive environment for that,” said Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, a standing committee member of the Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) – the largest mainstream communist party. “How can the government hold elections when it cannot provide security even to district headquarters? How can political leaders go to remote districts and villages for campaigning amid this mayhem?” he asked.
Arjun Narsingh KC, spokesperson of Nepali Congress (NC), trashed the government’s claims of holding polls terming it as its ploy to lengthen its stay in power. “Without resolving the current crisis, elections cannot be held,” said Homnath Dahal, spokesperson of Nepali Congress (Democratic).
The political parties are not only questioning the decision to hold polls but also the legitimacy of the present government. “This government is illegitimate and unelected, how can it be trusted to hold free and fair elections in the first place?” asked Madhav Kumar Nepal, general secretary of the UML.
EC Ready For Polls
Violent demostration : Not a solution
The chief elections commissioner (CEC) at the Elections Commission (EC) Keshav Raj Rajbhandari recently told government news agency RSS that the commission is able to hold the polls any time should the government decide.
The CEC has said that the commission will start collecting and updating the voters’ list throughout the country beginning mid-April. In the last general elections held in 1999 there were over 12 million voters in the country. “The government has agreed to provide us the adequate budget to set up our own offices in all 75 districts of the country,” said Rajbhandari. At present, EC has its office only in 30 districts.
But the talks of election seems easier said than done. Maoists have repeatedly made known that they are against any election. Maoist chairman Prachanda has already stated in the recent past that any election without resolving the political crisis raging in the country would be meaningless and unacceptable.
“It is still possible to hold elections. We are not talking of holding the election at one go – it will be held in several phases,” said Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani, Finance Minister who has set aside around US$ 25 million for the purpose of holding elections in this year’s budget.
Even Deuba government had initially planned holding elections in seven phases in November 2002 but in the last minute and under pressure from other political parties, he proposed to postpone it by one year. King Gyanendra instead of agreeing to his proposal, dismissed Deuba.
Holding elections in a mountainous and conflict ridden country like Nepal is very difficult. Providing security to thousands of ballot boxes and polling booths are a logistical nightmare in resource-scarce country like Nepal. In the past elections, there were over 15000 polling centers spread across the country. And there are many inaccessible parts of the country where transportation means are virtually non-existent and where officials will have to trek for days to reach. With the security personnel, including the Royal Nepalese Army, Nepal Police and Armed Police Force already stretched in their efforts to control ongoing insurgency, security experts say the government will find it extremely difficult to provide additional security in case of elections.
But for many, elections appear the only way out of the present impasse. Even the western donor countries have started to become restive due to lack of elected parliament and elected local bodies. “Surely, there has to be an election. Otherwise, donors will be hard pressed to continue with their support programs,” said an official of a western donor agency not wanting to be named.
College elections : Democratic exercise
Even the political parties privately concede that elections could be the best alternative to restore the democratic and constitutional process, which was derailed by King’s October 4 moves. But they do not trust that any polls held in prevailing situation and by a handpicked government would be free and fair.
There are 205 electoral constituencies across the country. Nepal has already witnessed three general elections since the restoration of democracy in 1990 – in 1991, 1994 (mid term) and 1999. During the 1991 polls, 47 political parties were given legal recognition by the EC. The number rose to 65 in 1994 mid term polls. Likewise, during the elections of 1999 there were 100 political parties that contested the polls.
The commission has introduced the system of voters’ ID in around thirteen constituencies. It plans to introduce the voters’ ID system in all of these constituencies gradually.
Even as general elections promise to provide a legitimate way out of the political and constitutional impasse, the escalation of conflict indicates it will be an extremely uphill task. April 8 2004