Even after 18 years of continuous efforts to form a strong regional alliance to uplift the lives of more than a billion people, the South Asia is yet to see a genuine approach for regional cooperation. Thanks to the personal initiative of Indian Prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who is facing the general elections later this year, a certain degree of hope for the beginning of regional cooperation has been ignited. However, if the recent Indian approach has been guided by its domestic politics alone, no one should be surprised if the whole euphoria fizzles out one fine morning

By KESHAB POUDEL

They hugged, they smiled for photo ops, they shook hands and spoke at length the rhetoric of regional friendship. The gallery of the 12th SAARC Summit recently held in Islamabad, Pakistan was markedly different than the one held in Nepal two years ago when journalists from all over the world came to see the leaders of India and Pakistan shaking their hands amid brewing tension between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

“Together, we stand a better chance in the world. This is not a mere slogan. It aptly expresses a profound truth, which South Asia has still to grasp fully. We have to change South Asia’s image and standing in the world. We must make the bold transition from mistrust to trust, from discord to concord, and from tension to peace,” said Indian prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee.

Although Indian prime minister has displayed courage and boldness by throwing the hand of friendship in the region, it remains to be seen how it will help to change the mindset in the Indian establishment. Many influential retired Indian diplomats and some powerful senior Indian journalists have already started raising questions over the newfound friendship. On that backdrop, one finds it hard to comprehend how the situation would improve.

Being the largest and the most powerful country of the region with the immense potentials, India’s mindset will determine the future of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. “India did not lead SAARC in all these 18 years. I cannot predict the course in future,” said a foreign relations analyst. “Although India’s civil service and media play very important role in shaping their own democracy, they mostly encourage anti-neighbor sentiments when it comes to foreign relations.”

How these powerful branches of the Indian establishment will act in the days ahead remains to be seen. Following the spirit of global anti-terrorism drive, Bhutan and Myanmar have already launched the drive against Indian terrorist outfits. Within the spirit of SAARC, Bangladesh seems to be taking some kind of offensive against India’s insurgents. Pakistani president Parvez Musharraf has expressed his firm commitment not to allow any terrorist group to use Pakistani soil. How India will reciprocate these overtures remains to be seen.

South Asia

South Asia, which is a region home to more than 20 percent of world’s population, is a region with diverse ethnic, religious groups and culture. There are many internal contradictions and conflicts in the all the countries of the region. Nepal is a Hindu Kingdom, Maldives and Pakistan are Islamic Republics, Bhutan and Sri Lanka are Buddhist and Bangladesh is overwhelmingly a Muslim country while India is a secular state.

In terms of geography, India is the largest country that shares border with four countries out of seven. Sri Lanka and Maldives are island nations in the Indian ocean. Although the People’s Republic of China is not a member of the SAARC, it also shares the border with four South Asian countries including Bhutan, Nepal, India and Pakistan.

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao in his message to the chairman of the 12th SAARC Summit and Pakistani prime minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali stated that the Chinese government is ready to work with the governments of all South Asian countries to promote the cause of peace and development in the region. According to the Xinhua news agency, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao said, “Since its founding SAARC has played an active role in enhancing the economic development, social progress and cultural exchange in South Asia thanks to the common efforts of its member states.”

As long as India does not sincerely support the regional cooperation, there is no question of any kind of real cooperation among the member of the SAARC. India holds the key of regional cooperation. By floating the proposal for the single currency, India has shown a long-term vision for the south Asia’s economic development.

Regional cooperation is never an easy task. It took more than four decades in Europe for the total economic integration together with single currency. Europe, too, is a continent with diverse groups and military powers. But they decided to pursue the economic cooperation rather than their own security concerns.

Today two strong rivals of Europe, Germany and France, are representing a single bloc with complete understanding. China has recently singed non-aggression treaty with the member of Southeast Asian countries, which consists of Philippines and Vietnam – both the countries are claiming their rights to the Spratley Islands. Three major countries with vast economic disparity the Mexico, the United States of America and Canada are doing business under the North American Free Trade Area.

South Asian countries, which have many diverse culture and religion, have many commonalities as well. If the countries of the region emphasize on their commonalities of the relations, they will definitely move ahead to improve the lives of more than half a billion population who are living under the absolute poverty line.

“Our region is full of prospects, commonalities and potentials. But our region is also beset with problems, paradoxes and differences. We have the largest concentration of poor in the world. Terrorism continues to haunt us. We are among the least integrated regions in the world, yet very slow in regional cooperation,” said prime minister Surya Bahadur Thapa summing up the region’s problem.

Economic Potentials

If the South Asian countries agree to develop a common market, it is going to be the second single largest market in the world. However, the strong sense of nationalism and security interest prevalent among the member states has always disturbed the possible way towards regional integration. In this region, the industrialists and business lobby have little voice in formulating the policies.

The countries of the region are following the sense of security rather than economic cooperation. Whenever the agenda of economic cooperation is mooted, security perceptions block it from getting translated into reality.

Despite continuous efforts to build the strong security network, the region houses more than 100 different kinds of small and large groups of insurgents controlling swathes of land through the reign of terror. Unfortunately, various states back and support such groups to destabilize other country.

At a time when all different regions of the world are showing the signs of economic prosperity, the time has come for the political leaders of South Asia to make a major breakthrough.

“As long as economic and industrial forces do not have voice in the bi-lateral and regional relations, there is no hope for genuine and constructive cooperation in the region,” said analyst.

Region of Distrust

The region has a long history of distrust and mistrust. Following the split of the Indian sub-continent into India and Pakistan in 1947 and declaration of independence by Bangladesh in 1971,the region has seen several rounds of wars. Despite the solution of almost all other territorial problems, Kashmir remains a major point of discord between India and Pakistan.

Long border disputes between India and China are yet to be sorted out. The humiliating defeat of India by China in 1962 is still haunting the mind of Indian mindset. The region has suffered a lot in the course of distrust and mistrust among the nations of South Asia. Smaller countries like Nepal have to suffer a lot. There is a distrust and mistrust among the nations.

India is the largest country in terms of geographical size, population and economy in the region while Maldives is the smallest. Although Nepal is very small in size compared to India, she has almost all ethnic groups, which India has. Interestingly, India has a stable and vibrant democracy but most of its neighbors are yet to have a full-fledged democracy.

43 Point Charter

The 12th SAARC summit has adopted 43-point Islamabad Declaration, which calls for promoting peace, stability, amity and a vision for a peaceful and prosperous South Asia. The Summit also decided to hold the next 13th SAARC summit in Bangladesh in January 2005.

Additional Protocol to the 1987 Convention for the Suppression of Terrorism, the SAFTA Framework Agreement and Social Charter are the major highlights of this summit. It also approved the Plan of Action on Poverty Alleviation. The summit meeting stressed on strengthening transportation, transit and communication links across the region for accelerated and balanced economic growth.

Conclusion

Despite differences and skepticism, one can see some ray of hope in the regional cooperation. If the leaders continue to show the warmth, it will help to enhance the economic opportunities in the region. However, frustrated at frequent witnessing of warmth suddenly melting away and turning into hostility caused by small frictions and old mind-set continuing to hijack the agenda, one cannot firmly predict that the situation has been improved for good.